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2016 Fantasy Football Mock Analysis

Antonio Brown kick

Via our friends at numberFire.

Vince Lombardi once said, “Practice does not make perfect. Only perfect practice makes perfect.”

Well, it’s a good thing this fantasy football mock draft is filled with only smart people or else it would’ve been a completely worthless exercise.

Some of the numberFire writing staff got together to do a mock draft for a hypothetical league that would hypothetically be starting hypothetically 1 quarterback, 2 running backs, 3 wide receivers, 1 tight end, and 1 flex (which could be a running back, wide receiver, or tight end). No defenses. No kickers. Because who wants to read about positions that’ll be dropped after Week 1 anyway?

The scoring is standard aside from the fact that receptions are worth half of a point.

Before we dig into the results, you’ll notice that quarterbacks went late in this thing. Very late. I’m all about that life, but your leaguemates probably won’t be — at least to the degree that this mock draft shows. Keep that in mind when you see Cam Newton go in — gasp — the sixth round. (Spoiler alert.)

Without further ado, let’s take a look at Round 1.

Round 1

Overall Pick Team Selection
1 Jake Kent Antonio Brown WR1
2 Tyler Buecher Julio Jones WR2
3 Jim Sannes Odell Beckham WR3
4 Matt Blair David Johnson RB1
5 Joseph Nammour A.J. Green WR4
6 Stan Son Ezekiel Elliott RB2
7 Aaron Watson Todd Gurley RB3
8 JJ Zachariason DeAndre Hopkins WR5
9 Jacob Gibbs Dez Bryant WR6
10 Sam Hauss Keenan Allen WR7
11 Jason Schandl Jamaal Charles RB4
12 Jordan Hoover Allen Robinson WR8


Best Pick: Antonio Brown

Maybe it’s lame that I’m calling Antonio Brown the best pick of the first round, but it’s hard to say otherwise. According to our metrics this year, Brown’s top comparable season — that is, a historical season that compares most favorably to what we could expect from Brown — is Marvin Harrison‘s 2002 campaign. You know, that one year he just went out and broke the single-season receptions mark.

I ended up selecting Hopkins with the eighth overall selection, and while I don’t think anyone should see it as a bad pick, a strong argument can be made that he’s a tad overvalued entering this year. That’s thanks to his splits when the Texans defense played to their actual potential last year as well as the team’s tendency to run the ball. Oh, what’s that? I wrote an article on him being overvalued? You can peep that here.

Round 2

Overall Pick Team Selection
13 Jordan Hoover Alshon Jeffery WR9
14 Jason Schandl Le’Veon Bell RB5
15 Sam Hauss Jordy Nelson WR10
16 Jacob Gibbs Adrian Peterson RB6
17 JJ Zachariason Devonta Freeman RB7
18 Aaron Watson Mike Evans WR11
19 Stan Son Rob Gronkowski TE1
20 Joseph Nammour Lamar Miller RB8
21 Matt Blair Brandon Marshall WR12
22 Jim Sannes Eddie Lacy RB9
23 Tyler Buecher Mark Ingram RB10
24 Jake Kent Brandin Cooks WR13


Best Pick:
Lamar Miller

There’s a lot of good value in the second round of drafts this year, as players such as Adrian Peterson and Rob Gronkowski fall into it quite often. But, to me, the best selection came from Joe Nammour at Pick 20, as he selected Lamar Miller as RB8.

Miller’s taking over the starting gig in an offense that has ranked in the top five in rushing plays in each of the last two years, and he’s been an efficient back in three of his four NFL seasons, rushing well above the league’s average Rushing Net Expected Points (NEP) per rush rate. High efficiency with lots of volume could mean a big season for Miller.

Round 3

Overall Pick Team Selection
25 Jake Kent LeSean McCoy RB11
26 Tyler Buecher T.Y. Hilton WR14
27 Jim Sannes Sammy Watkins WR15
28 Matt Blair Demaryius Thomas WR16
29 Joseph Nammour C.J. Anderson RB12
30 Stan Son Amari Cooper WR17
31 Aaron Watson Doug Martin RB13
32 JJ Zachariason Randall Cobb WR18
33 Jacob Gibbs Dion Lewis RB14
34 Sam Hauss Jeremy Maclin WR19
35 Jason Schandl Carlos Hyde RB15
36 Jordan Hoover Jarvis Landry WR20


Best Pick: Sammy Watkins

It seems as though Sammy Watkins’ value is depreciated a bit due to his injury, but recent news around it is positive. And, if we’re being honest, a healthy Sammy Watkins is probably more of a second-round selection versus a third-round one.

Watkins saw a nice uptick in targets over the second half of last season and actually finished in the weekly top-15 at the wide receiver position four times from Weeks 12 through 16. He should see one of the highest team market shares in the league given competition, and if Tyrod Taylor can keep up his efficiency — he was the 10th-most efficient passer last year according to our numbers — Watkins could easily finish as a low-end WR1 this year.

Continue reading at numberFire.com… (@numberfire)

PDFS Staff About PDFS Staff
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